Thursday, August 21, 2014

Mumbai Metro Mess: What has a Mumbaikar lost

Mumbai is not only India's largest city by population but also is the financial as well as commercial capital of the country generating the highest contribution of 6.16% (i. e. $209 billion) to India’s total GDP. Here are some astounding figures of Mumbai contribution to the nation’s economy:

·         10% of factory employment
·         25% of industrial output
·         33% of income tax collections
·         60% of customs duty collections
·         20% of central excise tax collections
·         40% of India's foreign trade
·         Rs. 4,000crore (US$888 million) in corporate taxes

Mumbai, the economic powerhouse of India also generates 70% of maritime trade in India and 70% of capital transactions to the nation’s economy. Operating in sectors from textiles to petrochemicals, the city also houses the headquarters for many companies, big and small.

Knowing all this, the questions that disturb a conscious Mumbaikar like me are many. Why Mumbai is not a global city yet as far as infrastructure, transport, traffic & Metro train are concerned? How similar cities across the globe have done a marvelous job with all these? When & how Mumbai will change to the city that it deserves to be? And will get the infrastructure, transport that we deserves?
With the limitations of expansion of the city, Metro train system was the dream solution, which runs across global cities including other cities of our own country to make travel effortless for the working class.  A metro promise turned out to be a mega nightmare for Mumbaikars. I delved deeper into it to bring to light what we have lost! Here’s a socio-cost benefit analysis.

 

Financial-Cost Benefit Analysis:

Charkop - Bhandra – Mankhurd of the Mumbai Metro was supposed to be completed by 2011. Unprecedented delays & work is yet to begin. Had this project completed by 2011 with an estimated metro fare of Rs. 8.5/- per km, the total revenue generated was estimated to be Rs. 947million. With a hypothetical 5% annual increase in fares, the estimations of revenue is reported as follows:

Year
2011
2012
2013
2014
Weighted Fare by travel distance as recommended by Scott Wilson
8.50
 8.93
9.37
 9.84
Total Annual Revenue in Million(INR)
947.00
994.35
1,044.07
 1,096.27
Total Revenue in Million(INR)
4,081.69



That means Mumbai has already lost estimated revenue of Rs 4081.688 Million or approximately Rs 4000 crore due to the delay of the project phase 2.

It is mention worthy that our very own Delhi Metro has earned Rs 2247.77 crore in the financial year 2011-2012.

 

Decline in the Air Quality in Mumbai:

The United Nations has certified the Delhi Metro as the first metro rail & rail based system in the world with carbon credits for reducing the green house gases and for helping in reducing the pollution levels of the city by 4.5 lakh tonnes per year by removing more than 91000 vehicles from the Delhi’s streets.
On the contrary, Mumbai has registered a whooping increase, 180441 vehicles between 2012-2013 alone thereby contributing the highest amount of Carbonmonoxide, suspended particles, lead, sulphurdioixde, hydrocarbons and oxides of nitrogen among other pollutants. The total number of vehicles registered in Mumbai as of 2013 was 22,08,954.
A glimpse of air pollution in Mumbai

SULPHER DIOXIDE LEVELS IN MUMBAI

LOCATION
2012 – 2011
2011 – 2010
2010 – 2009
2009 – 2008
2008 – 2007
Worli
14
8
9
13
14
Khar
10
7
9
12
11
Andheri
11
8
12
13
11
Bhandup
12
10
14
18
14
Borivali
9
7
7
8
8
Maravli (Chembur)
16
10
16
16
18

(All figures are in µg/m3 - micrograms per cubic meter of air)

NITROGEN DIOXIDE LEVELS IN MUMBAI

LOCATION
2012 – 2011
2011 – 2010
2010 – 2009
2009 – 2008
2008 – 2007
Worli
44
32
41
67
31
Khar
57
44
47
84
47
Andheri
56
40
53
86
47
Bhandup
40
34
29
67
34
Borivali
20
14
22
31
19
Maravli (Chembur)
60
50
65
89
54

(All figures are in µg/m3 - micrograms per cubic meter of air)

SUSPENDED PARTICLE MATTER (SPM) LEVELS IN MUMBAI

LOCATION
2012 – 2011
2011 – 2010
2010 – 2009
2009 – 2008
2008 – 2007
Worli
205
197
201
183
185
Khar
219
221
250
252
258
Andheri
238
203
227
263
281
Bhandup
273
198
200
206
268
Borivali
158
125
113
129
32
Maravli (Chembur)
760
642
603
389
439

(All figures are in µg/m3 - micrograms per cubic meter of air)

 

Savings in Foreign Exchange due to reduced Fuel Consumption in Mumbai Metro(Figures in INR)


Traffic Mode
Diverted Traffic
Fuel Consumption norm
in KM/L
Daily Run
in KM
Fuel savings
in Litres
Price of Fuel as per 2004 prices
Value of Fuel Savings in Millions as per 2004 prices
Price of fuel as per today
Value of Fuel savings in Millions today in Rs
Cars
164252
13
30
64058280
 38
 2,434,214,640
 82
5,257,263,040
Two-Wheelers
985789
35
25
862565375
 38
 32,777,484,250
 82
70,790,740,326
Buses (CNG)
9450
18
209
35550900
 18
 639,916,200
 39
 1,402,127,496
Total
1159491
66
264
962174555

 35,851,615,090

77,450,130,862








Rs.7.75 Trillion

The above calculation is of the money exchange saved by the country with the existence of the Delhi Metro alone in the year 2011-2012 at 2004 prices as well as the current prices.

If 193.2 Km of Delhi Metro alone can generate more than Rs. 7.75 trillion annually, then Mumbai metro could have generated about Rs. 2 Trillion in the first two years going with the above assumptions and from 2016 onwards the saving would have been Rs. 3.3 Trillion, provided the Mumbai Metro was delivered as per scheduled.

This means, we as an economy have failed to save Rs. 2 Trillion every year since the beginning of 2011 and about Rs. 6 Trillion have been lost.

Savings from Prevention of Accidents:

The cost saved due to the Delhi Metro for the year of 2011-2012 are shown below:
Cost Component
Value (Rs)
Reduction in injuries, fatalities, and damage to vehicles
Compensation for 2011-12 (Rs in million)
Cost of fatal accidents
437342
573
250
Cost of major accidents
64256
2980
190
Cost of damage to cars in road accidents
9763
236
2.3
cost of damage to two wheelers in road accidents
2286
1416
3.2
Cost of damage to buses in road accidents
32818
14
0.4
Total


445.9

Interestingly, Mumbai tops the list of accidents. 12.9% of the country’s accidents happen in the streets of Mumbai. Government statistics for 2012 on accidents in Mumbai vis-a-vis other cities is as follow:
S.No
City
Population in Lakh
Share of population in percentage
Share of deaths in percentage
Rate (No. of deaths per one lakh population)
1
Chennai
86.96
5.4
4.2
28.4
2
Delhi
163.15
10.1
11.9
43.2
3
Kolkata
141.13
8.8
1.3
5.6
4
Mumbai
184.14
11.4
12.9
41.6

So now, I leave it to your imagination, how many accidents we could have prevented had the Mumbai Metro had been on track without any delay. I leave it to your imagination, how many lives we could have saved and how much money which of course is of least importance compared to lives we could have saved nevertheless.


According to the estimation of Rail India Technical and Economic Service, the savings that have been generated due to the reduction in the congestion effect in the financial year 2011-12 is Rs. 15040 million. The savings in capital expenditure as well as operating cost of diverted vehicles is estimated to be Rs 17677 million. These savings are the direct benefits of Delhiites. When does a common Mumbaikar benefit from such a system? By delaying Mumbai metro, Mumbaikar’s have been denied such benefits. 

Who is responsible for this irreparable loss of Mumbaikars? 

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